What’s your Fantasy?
The 2012/13 NFL season is now less than 6 weeks away, and apart from the building excitement that all football fans have to see their heroes back out on the field, it is that time of year when fantasy-nuts are buried in stats, predictions and strategies, planning to destroy the competition in their respective leagues.
But no season is the same as the last in fantasy-land, so I’ve put together a little preview of some of the players I think could have a big year. Some may be obvious, some certainly are not, but within this ‘traditional’ fantasy team structure, I’m hoping I’ve found a few gems to carry me to a championship.
QB: Jay Cutler (CHI)
Cutler wished he didn’t play at all last year, constantly being hit, hassled and hammered by opposing defenses. But he still looked like leading the Bears to the playoffs, until the inevitable happened, and he ended up face-first on a cold football field in the North, injured. This year will be different for two main reasons. One: there is no way that the Bears’ O-line can be that bad again. They have to improve, and any improvement will bear fruit due to reason two: Brandon Marshall. While Marshall is well-known to be… er… difficult, he is also a supreme talent if a team takes him under their wing and says: “Brandon, we love you, you’re number one.” Chicago did this, and re-united with Cutler, the Bears could become a formidable offense, not only due to Matt Forte and Michael Bush in the backfield, but also due to the emergence of Alshon Jeffery, the rookie WR out of South Carolina. In camp, his hands look like buckets, and he could be a brilliant foil for Marshall, providing Cutler with opportunity to throw the ball a lot more than he did last year. Chicago are quietly assembling a very good team, and Cutler could benefit hugely, to the tune of around 4000 yards and 28 TD’s.
RB1: DeMarco Murray (DAL)
This guy has some real talent, and if healthy, can provide Tony Romo with the perfect safety valve that he has needed to keep the pressure off of himself the whole time. Romo is in ‘last chance saloon’ mode, and realises that he has to deliver for Jerry Jones, and part of that is making sure he has an effective running game to help him. Murray flashed brilliance before he got injured last season, has made the no.1 spot on the depth chart his own, and with the rapidly improving offensive line in Dallas, has a chance to put together a spectacular season for the Cowboys. I don’t think, if he stays healthy, it is unreasonable to expect 1100 yards and 9 TD’s from Murray, and also around 250 yards receiving with 1 or 2 scores as well.
RB2: Isaac Redman (PIT)
With Rashard Mendenhall injured for the considerable future (will likely miss 6-8 games), Redman is the first choice tailback for the Steelers going into this season, and even though in Wallace, Brown and Sanders, they may have one of the best young wide receiving trio’s in the league, the run game is the bread and butter of Steeler football. As teams drop off, expecting a passing onslaught, Redman has the opportunity and the capability to step up, exploit gaps and put together an excellent season. Redman is also a good target for Big Ben out of the backfield, so expect 200 yards worth of catches and a couple of TD’s in the passing game, while his newfound RB1 status, for the first half of the season at least, could bring him 900 yards and 6 touchdowns, not bad numbers for the year. Obviously I am hedging my bets on Redman being no.1 on the depth chart all season in Pittsburgh, but with ACL injuries like Mendenhall’s, you can never tell how a player will return.
WR1: Julio Jones (ATL)
With the increasing age of running back Michael Turner and the decline of their divisional rivals, the New Orleans Saints, the Falcons will most likely hand the reigns over to Matt Ryan and unleash the huge aerial potential in the offense, in order to make a big push for the NFC South title. Although Roddy White is a proven, reliable fantasy option, after his debut season, it is Julio Jones who seems the more likely home-run hitter in the Atlanta offense. If Ryan can fulfil his potential, which I have always believed is HUGE, then Jones can look forward to a massive year, with around 1200 yards and 10-12 touchdowns, a very solid fantasy option indeed.
WR2: Torrey Smith (BAL)
I have a feeling that the AFC North will not be as hard-hitting and combative this year as it used to be. That’s not saying it won’t be a hard-fought division, but you have to look at the ageing superstars that held it down as the hardest defensive nut of a division to crack and say, ok, there’s going to be a drop off. Especially in the Pittsburgh Steelers who have lost countless experienced defensive players in the offseason. Couple this with the apparent rise of Joe Flacco as the Ravens’ signal caller, climbing into the upper echelons of quarterback play in the NFL, and the signs point to an offensive opportunity for the Ravens in the division. The run-first philosophy that has always existed in the AFC North makes the play-action deep ball a popular and effective tactic, one that Torrey Smith is born to be part of. His speed and route running ability makes him a huge weapon in an offense that, even with Ray Rice, may throw the ball a lot more than you might expect. I can see a 1000 yard, 8 touchdown year for the speedster, Mike Wallace-esque.
TE: Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Detroit’s offense is undoubtedly a heavily pass-first system, and with teams constantly blanketing Calvin Johnson to try and stop Megatron from shredding them, Pettigrew has a real chance of joining the Tony Gonzalez’s, the Jason Witten’s and the Fred Davis’ of this world as a strong TE option in fantasy land.He probably won’t be able to hit Gronk/Graham/Gates heights, but if Detroit use him in the right way, he may not be far off. With Matt Stafford healthy and firing, expect 850 yards receiving with 8 TD’s in a really solid fantasy year.
RB/WR Flex: Doug Martin –RB (TB)
Doug Martin has been lighting up the practice field in Tampa, and it seems as if LeGarrette Blount’s time is up as the no.1 RB option on the Bucs’ roster. While I wouldn’t advise reaching for a rookie in a fantasy draft, Martin looks a lock to start on day 1 of the 2012/13 season, and by the way the coaches in Tampa Bay are showering praise over him, don’t be surprised if he puts up some very decent numbers in a revitalised offense. A solid pass-catcher and every-down back, Martin’s projected year could reach 1000 yards on the ground, 200 yards in the air and 9 or 10 combined scores. So if he’s still around in say, the 6th round of your fantasy draft, I would seriously consider making Doug a part of your team.
Def: Seattle Seahawks
By the end of the year, the Seahawks under Pete Carroll had established themselves as a very solid football team, both on offense and defense. The defense in Seattle is built from a group of good football players, not least Red Bryant, whose signing in the offseason must have been a massive boost for everyone in Seattle, and with the additions of Marcus Trufant and Barrett Ruud to an already progressive group of football players, Seattle could be very difficult to play against. Bruce Irvin is interesting as well, the shock first-round pick could provide a real spark off the edge with his high motor and ridiculous physical skills, helping Jason Jones, Red Bryant, Brandon Mebane, and the rest of the defensive linemen to cause havoc and draw interceptions, sacks and fumbles, all tasty-fare in fantasy world. The NFC West is also not the greatest offensive division (yes, yes, apart from Larry Fitzgerald), another factor that could help the Seahawks’ D to accumulate your fantasy team somewhere around 135 points in the coming season.
K: Randy Bullock (HOU)
“A rookie kicker!?!?”, I hear you scream. Yes, but this kid is no ordinary rookie kicker. Houston allowed Neil Rackers, one of the NFL’s premier special-team weapons, to leave for pastures new in RGIII-world, or Washington as we know it, because they knew what they had in Randy Bullock, who they selected in the FIFTH round of the 2012 draft. Finished laughing at his name yet? Good, save it up, because you’ll be laughing some more when this kid puts up numbers like he did at Texas A&M, where he nailed 63 of 80 FG’s, scoring 365 points over 4 seasons, a school record. Even though the Texans will audition more experienced guys for the role, I think Bullock will impress enough to take his place as no.1 on the roster, and make good on the opportunity that an explosive offense such as the Houston offense offers. I’m looking forward to a 45-50 XP, 25 FG season, which will put upwards of 120 points on your fantasy stat sheet. Not bad for a rook. Or a kicker.